Attention Zillow stalkers 🏡

Seattle real estate predictions for 2023

The Seattle skyline on a snowy day with the Space Needle lit for the holidays.

Seattle home prices in many areas may drop next year, but not by a ton. | Photo by @marsjnm

As Seattle’s weather gets a little more frigid, there have been signs of chillier headwinds in the local housing market, too — especially when compared to 2021’s red hot trends.

In November 2022, the number of homes sold in the city dropped 47.8% year-over-year, and median sale prices were down 11% from April. But that doesn’t mean everything is cooling off. The median sale price in Seattle was $810,000 in November, still up ~5.2% over last year — and prices were higher in every neighborhood except Belltown and downtown.

So, what does the forecast call for in 2023? Let’s check the radar.

Look out for dropping list prices 👀

Matthew Gardner, chief economist for Windemere real estate, said the big story for next year will be a continuing downturn in the local market — but not anything like a collapse. The skyrocketing market from 2021 was “clearly unsustainable,” he said, and now there’s a correction.

Matthew predicted King County home prices will be ~4.7% lower across the board in 2023 — a modest dip. The key is to look for the list price trends rather than sale prices, since the former is a leading indicator.

Value in the outskirts 💰

Matthew liked White Center, Burien, and even areas further Southwest, from Normandy Park all the way down to Dash Point, for those on the house hunt.

He also thought the market will still be impacted by remote workers — but there’s a limit to how far the demand will go. Lake Forest Park and Montlake? Yes. Skagit County? Not so much.

BellevueSkyline_SEA — The median sale prices for Bellevue homes are over $1 million.

Worth it to wait? ⏰

Those hoping for rock-bottom prices just around the corner may be out of luck. Eastside sales have slowed recently, but the median sale price for a home in neighborhoods like Bellevue is still above $1 million.

The good news is the number of Seattle homes that sold above list price in November dropped 24% year-over-year. “Sellers have been in the driver’s seat for a decade,” said Matthew. “Now they have to be more realistic.”

MORE HOT TIPS

Give us your prediction: Over the next six months, the real estate market here will...

A. Heat up even more
B. Level off and stay about the same
C. Start to cool off a bit
D. I have no earthly idea

LET US KNOW

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Tuesday, Dec. 20

Santa Photos at the Landing | Tuesday, Dec. 20-Saturday, Dec. 24 | 11 a.m. | The Landing, 828 North 10th Pl., Renton | $20 | It’s not too late to put in a good word with the Big Man.
Seattle Kraken vs. St. Louis Blues | Tuesday, Dec. 20 | 7 p.m. | Climate Pledge Arena, 334 First Ave N., Seattle | $20-$625 | The Kraken take on a powerful Western Conference foe, hoping to skate up in the standings.

Wednesday, Dec. 21

Chamber Holiday Party | Wednesday, Dec. 21 | 5-7:30 p.m. | Side Hustle Brewery, 15 Lake St., Kirkland | $25 | The Kirkland Chamber of Commerce celebrates the merry season with plenty of taps a-flowin’.
Winter Solstice Celebration | Wednesday, Dec. 21 | 7-9 p.m. | Virtual | $0-$40 | In this online movement class, stretch out while contemplating the benefits of longer nights — BYOC (bring your own candles).

Thursday, Dec. 22

Geoffrey Castle’s Celtic Christmas | Thursday, Dec. 22-Friday, Dec. 23 | 7 p.m. | Kirkland Performance Center, 350 Kirkland Ave., Kirkland | $41 | The renowned, electric six-string violinist brings festive fun to the Eastside.
Seattle Men’s Chorus: “Holiday Fa-la-la-liday” | Thursday, Dec. 22-Friday, Dec. 23 | 7:30 p.m. | Benaroya Hall, 200 University St., Seattle | $57-$97 | The annual musical tradition is back with glitter, lights, a sing-along, and a Christmas Conga.

Friday, Dec. 23

Uncle Mike Ruins Christmas | Friday, Dec. 23-Saturday, Dec. 24 | 7:30-9 p.m. | West of Lenin, 203 N. 36th St., Seattle | $22 | Write down a cherished holiday memory and improv performers will act it out in a narrative surrounding the titular character.
Funky Friday | Friday, Dec. 23 | 10 p.m.-1 a.m. | Sea Monster Lounge, 2202 N. 45th St., Seattle | $12 | It’s time to get your groove on with local artists like Woogie D, Mark Mattrey, and Roc Phizzle.

We have a calendar filled with events and activities you can plan for in advance. Click the button below to bookmark ideas for upcoming date nights, family outings, and time with friends.

100+ MORE EVENTS

Weather

35º | Let it snow | 98% chance of precipitation
A winter storm warning was issued last night for the city of Seattle and Western Washington with freezing temps and significant snow expected. Locals are advised to avoid travel, if possible. The warning is in effect until 7 p.m. tonight. ❄️

Sunrise + Sunset

Rise: 7:54 a.m.
Set: 4:19 p.m.

Biz

We’ve officially shopped until we’ve dropped. There were 2.1 million visitors around Seattle’s retail core in November — which is 6% higher than last year — according to the Downtown Seattle Association. Foot traffic increased in December, too. 🛍️ (KING 5)

Travel

Know before you go. The Washington State Department of Transportation released estimates on highway congestion for the holiday week. Friday, Dec. 23 and Monday, Dec. 26 should see the heaviest traffic — with Christmas Day on the lighter side. 🚗 (Seattle Times)

Tech

Ukrainian health officials and policymakers recently visited Seattle to learn more about our life sciences industry. The delegation — which gathered at a networking event in South Lake Union last week — hoped to gain more biotech knowledge to help their home country rebuild. (GeekWire)

Civic

Four cities north of Seattle voted to fund the King County Regional Homelessness Authority. Bothell, Kenmore, Lake Forest Park, and Shoreline are the first suburbs to financially support the agency, which aims to create a unified, regional strategy to addressing homelessness. (Seattle Times)

Closing

Pour one out for Victory Lounge. The longtime dive bar is closing on Friday, Dec. 31 after being unable to come to a lease renewal agreement. It was known as a lively punk venue hosting bands like The Spits, Nasty Bits, and Greenriver Thrillers over 25 years of business. 🎸 (Vanishing Seattle)

List

Cha-ching. For the first time ever, two parts of downtown Seattle were among the top 10 highest-income tracts in the city. The area of Belltown along the waterfront ranked fourth with a median household income of $181,000, while the blocks around Amazon’s campus near the Spheres ranked seventh. 💰 (Seattle Times)

Learn

You know how to order coffee at Caffe Ladro. But can you order coffee in Italian? Babbel can help SEAtoday readers learn how to order coffee (and other beverages) in Italian, so they’ll be ready for their next trip to Italy. Want to try it out? For a limited time, snag 55% off your subscription. ☕ *

Travel

Craving a trip? How about famously foggy mornings, boutique shopping, and Michelin-starred restaurants in San Francisco? We love this Presidio Heights two room + bath suite for its central location, cleanliness, and bay window breakfast nook. 🌉*

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Culture

Upcoming winter holidays

The International Fountain in Seattle lit up in rainbow colors for the holidays.

The International Fountain at Seattle Center is lit up for Winterfest. | Photo via Seattle Center

You’ve probably heard a lot of “happy holidays” this season — with good reason. Plenty of cultures celebrate the start of astronomical winter, the end of the year, or just the coming of cold weather by gathering with loved ones and giving thanks.

Look forward to:

Yule (Dec. 21), an ancient Germanic solstice festival. Celebrants mark the shortest day of the year and balance between light and dark.
Hanukkah (ongoing), the Jewish Festival of Lights which began the evening of Sunday, Dec. 18 and ends on Monday, Dec. 26.
Christmas (Dec. 25), a cultural and religious festival — which, if you’ve put off gift shopping until now, there’s still time.
Kwanzaa (Dec. 26), a week of African American and pan-African celebration culminating in Karamu on Saturday, Dec. 31.
Lunar Bodhi Day (Dec. 30), celebrating the Buddha’s enlightenment through acts of kindness. “Secular” Bodhi Day was celebrated on Dec. 8.

You don’t need to celebrate them all — but let’s all celebrate together.

THE WRAP

Today’s issue was written by Gabe.

Editor’s pick: Just like any cool kid, the Washington State Department of Transportation’s snow plows are a hit on TikTok. With names like Plowie McPlow Plow and Betty Whiteout, it’s no wonder.

I’m grateful for plows of any name whenever there’s even a dusting around here. Snow’s in the forecast today, so take it slow — and stay safe.

Missed yesterday’s newsletter? Peruse items on our last-minute gift guide.

Connect with us.

Editorial: Alina Hunter-Grah, Gabe Guarente, Britt Thorson, Emily Shea | Send us a scoop, question, or feedback.

Sales: Rachel Sklenar | Advertise with us.

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